Oscars 2021: Predicting the Winner in Every Category

The 2021 Oscar political elections are right below, in addition to although the occasion is higher than a month away, right below are our existing options for that will absolutely take house the gold.

The 2021 Oscar political elections have been divulged, yet that will the victors be? The occasion is established for late April, in addition to a great deal can take place from presently up till the victors are exposed – including simply exactly how the workshops' tasks tidy. Frontrunners could tarnish, in addition to late-breaking Academy favorites can easily attract breakthrough, yet forerunner honors included with a motion picture's Oscar political election account can disclose prognosticators what's up, what's down, in addition to what hops on the boost.

Oscar political election morning has in fact wound up being almost related to problem connecting to snubs, yet there's a great deal of history to honor with 2021's plant of prospects. While Ma Rainey's Black Bottom in addition to One Night in Miami lost on presumed Best Picture reacts, this year represents among one of the most different acting slate in Academy history, with Minari‘s Steven Yeun becoming the preliminary Asian-American Best Actor prospect. On the reverse of the webcam, Chloé Zhao in addition to Emerald Fennell come from the preliminary Best Director plant to include 2 women, with Zhao not simply being the preliminary lady to be picked for 4 Oscars in one year yet in addition the preliminary Chinese-American women picked for Best Director. She in addition to Minari manager Lee Isaac Chung in addition represent simply the 5th in addition to sixth Asian supervisors in the classification.

All of this background comes packaged with one of the most unusual Oscar period in background, commemorating a year of movie when most theater were shut as a result of an international pandemic in addition to customers needed to rely on streaming to capture the most up to date offerings. With citizens withdrawed in their bubbles and also marginal testings and also campaign-funded suppers possible, Oscars 2021 is ripe for upsets and also surprises, but here's how the winners look at this current moment of the race.

Nomadland has swept awards season thus far, becoming the first film in history to win both the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and also the Toronto International Film Festival's Peoples Choice Award, before moving on to clinch the majority of critics' Best Film prizes and also Best Picture at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. All that hardware is helpful, however could paint a target on the film's back at a fairly precarious stage of the race. With some time to go until the ceremony, it still remains to be seen if the Academy's largest voting branch, the actors, will want to give top prize to a fairly slowly-paced, plotless film featuring only two professional actors; critical darlings Boyhood and Roma certainly dominated the early parts of their respective awards seasons before falling short at the finish line. Should that be Nomadland‘s fate, look to Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Cast nominees Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7 to spoil. At this stage, though, it's Nomadland‘s to lose.

Will and should win: Nomadland

Could win: Minari

Should've been nominated: Da 5 Bloods

Whether or not Nomadland takes home Best Picture, this race is all but a lock. While there was initial projection that this might finally be David Fincher's year, general reception to Mank has been cool. Chloé Zhao, on the other hand, has dominated this category all season long and looks poised to sweep the rest of the way, making her only the second woman to win Best Director and the first Chinese-American woman winner in the Academy's history.

Will and should win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Could win: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Should've been nominated: Kelly Reichardt, First Cow

The Best Actress category has been all over the place this season, with Never Rarely Sometimes Always‘ Sidney Flanigan splitting critics prizes with Carey Mulligan all winter before Andra Day delivered a shocking win at the Golden Globes. Carey was back on top again at the Critics Choice Awards, but she now faces heavy competition from Viola Davis at the SAG Awards on April 4th. Davis would become only the second Black woman to win Best Actress at the Oscars, and there may be increased support for her after the film's surprising snub for a Best Picture nomination. Still, Carey has never won, and this would be the perfect place to reward a film the Academy clearly loves.

Will win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Could win: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Should've been nominated: Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

The trophy’s engraved, it’s just waiting to be picked up April 25th. Chadwick Boseman, whose life and career were cut shockingly short in 2020, will forever be Academy Award winner Chadwick Boseman, as it should be. In his final performance, he leaves it all on the table. It’ll be a worthy and bittersweet win.

Will and should win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Could win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Should've been nominated: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Lock it in: Glenn Close is going home empty-handed, tying Peter O'Toole's record for most Oscar nominations without a single win at eight. After that, this is truly anyone's game. Olivia Colman is clearly beloved and, as Sally Field can attest, when the Oscars like someone, they really, really like them. Seyfried could also surge, though Mank seems likely to be 2021's Irishman – lots of nominations, no wins. The critical darlings all season have been Yuh-Jung Youn and Maria Bakalova, with the latter being the only nominee in the category to clinch nods at Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, SAG, and the Oscars. Youn would be a fantastic winner, but it's just too difficult to root against Borat 2‘s Bakalova, whose win for playing Borat's feral but endearing daughter Tutar would be an anomaly in Academy history; such an out-and-out comedic performance has never won. Still, her win below is not out of the question, particularly since she went head-to-head with one of 2020's biggest villains, Rudy Giuliani himself.

Will and should win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Could win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Should've been nominated: Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah

After the chaos and confusion of the Actress categories, this one seems like another safe lock. Daniel Kaluuya is clearly an Oscars favorite, defying the Academy's horror-bias with a nomination for his performance in Get Out. There still is hope for Sacha Baron Cohen, who has actually been a bit of a Man of the Year with his contrasting turns in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The Trial of the Chicago 7. However, Kaluuya has Critics Choice and the Globe under his belt, and seems likely to steamroll straight to the Oscar.

Will and should win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Could win: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Should've been nominated: Orion Lee, First Cow

This looks to be a two-horse race between Critics Choice winner Promising Young Woman and Globes' choice The Trial of the Chicago 7. Aaron Sorkin's main hurdle here seems to be getting nominated, having been snubbed by the writers' branch for his work on Steve Jobs. Now that he's in, though, it'll be hard for the Academy to deny him a win. Promising Young Woman could win, of course, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a real heavyweight this awards season and, even if it doesn't win anywhere else, this is likely the place it'll be rewarded.

Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could win: Promising Young Woman

Should win: Judas and the Black Messiah

Should've been nominated: The King of Staten Island

Kemp Powers is a bit of an all-star in 2021, having both adapted One Night in Miami from his own play and co-written Soul with Pete Docter and Mike Jones. It would make sense to reward him here, but One Night in Miami is missing a Best Picture nomination and no film this century has won a Screenplay award without a nod for top prize. That really only leaves Nomadland and The Father, and while the former won Critics Choice and is expertly-adapted from its source material, it just doesn't have the feel of a Screenplay winner at the Oscars, which is typically more showy in its writing and dialogue-driven. The Father may be a bit of an untested winner here, but it could very easily run the table for the rest of the season.

Will win: The Father

Could and should win: Nomadland

Should've been nominated: I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Mank‘s gorgeous, black-and-white photography could still take Best Cinematography, but Joshua James Richards' work on Nomadland, with its haunting horizons and magic-hour melancholy, is fairly undeniable. It's also brushed up this award thus far in the period, giving it a fairly clear path to the Oscar.

Will and should win: Nomadland

Could win: Mank

Should've been nominated: First Cow

With only two Best Picture nominees in the category, this feels like a two-horse race between Ma Rainey and Mank, with the latter facing the stat of no black-and-white film winning here since the Academy changed from having separate categories for black-and-white and color films. This should be a fairly easy victory for previous winner Ann Roth, who at 89 ties the record for oldest nominee in Oscar history, with James Ivory and Agnès Varda.

Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Could and should win: Mank

Should've been nominated: The Personal History of David Copperfield

With five Best Picture nominees on the docket, this is truly anyone's to win. Critics Choice was profoundly unhelpful, awarding a tie to Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Both make up the flashiest of the bunch, typically a good sign for the eventual winner at the Oscars, and given its quick-cut montages and snappy courtroom scenes, it seems logical to give the edge to Chicago 7.

Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could win: Sound of Metal

Should win: Nomadland

Should've been nominated: Mank

A good rule of thumb for figuring out what the Oscars eventually reward is subbing out the word “best” for “most”; “Most Costumes,” “Most Editing,” and, in this case, “Most Makeup & Hair.” In this case, that's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, which transforms Viola Davis into the titular character with undeniable craft.

Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Could win: Hillbilly Elegy

Should win: Pinocchio

Should've been nominated: Bill & Ted Face the Music

Mank leads the Oscar nominations with 10, and it would seem likely to follow in the footsteps of The Irishman last year and go home empty-handed were it not for this category. With its incredible attention to detail and period recreation, this feels like a lock.

Will and should win: Mank

Could win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should've been nominated: First Cow

Best Original Score is a stacked category, with a worthy surprise nod for Terence Blanchard's stirring score for Da 5 Bloods, the only nomination to which that film woke up this morning. However, consensus seems to have decided Soul is the winner here, and that seems likely to repeat up to the Oscars.

Will win: Soul

Could and should win: Minari

Should've been nominated: Tenet

Leslie Odom Jr. is a double nominee, for his performance as Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami and for that film's closing credits song, “Speak Now.” There's always the chance this award could go to Diane Warren's The Life Ahead song, giving her a much-anticipated victory after 12 nominations without a win, but this seems like Leslie's to lose.

Will win: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

Could win: “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

Should win: “Husavik (My Hometown),” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Should've been nominated: “Rain Song,” Minari

No longer is this the office pool-decider split of Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, the Academy has finally lumped it all together in one general Sound category. Typically, war films do well in this category, so Greyhound shouldn't be counted out. However, Sound of Metal's final act is an almost exclusively audio experience, and not to insult anyone's intelligence, but it's got “sound” in the title.

Will and should win: Sound of Metal

Could win: Greyhound

Should've been nominated: The Invisible Man

The general rule of Best Visual Effects is to choose the Best Picture nominee (last year, 1917 trumped special effects extravaganza Avengers: Endgame). When there's none nominated here, go with the film that feels the most like a Best Picture contender. That's a toss-up between The Midnight Sky and Tenet, but even despite the ongoing discourse and criticism of Christopher Nolan's latest film, it just feels too undeniable a winner.

Will and should win: Tenet

Could win: The Midnight Sky

Should've been nominated: The Invisible Man

Shaun the Sheep is now a two-time Oscar nominee, sneaking in over presumed contender Over the Moon. However, there's very little chance Best Animated Feature goes to any other nominee than Soul, which has recognition of being a Pixar film as well as having a profound story to tell.

Will win: Soul

Could and should win: Wolfwalkers

Should've been nominated: Over the Moon

Over the past several years, the presumed frontrunner in Best Documentary Feature has missed out on a nomination. Not so in 2021, as Garrett Bradley's intensely moving documentary Time, which has dominated in critics' wins, found a spot among the five. There's still room for others to gain momentum, but especially after a summer dominated by Black Lives Matter and difficult but important conversations about race relations in America, this shattering film about a Black woman fighting for two decades to release her husband from a 60-year prison sentence feels like the absolutely correct winner.

Will and should win: Time

Could win: My Octopus Teacher

Should've been nominated: Boys State

The last two years, the winner of Best International Film has also been a Best Picture nominee, with last year's Parasite coming to be the initial in this category to take home top prize at the Oscars. This year has no such nominee, although Another Round‘s Thomas Vinterberg stole that 5th Directing slot from Aaron Sorkin. Combine that with a star turn from Casino Royale and also Hannibal star Mads Mikkelsen, as a high school teacher experimenting with being drunk all the time, and also this is probably the winner.

Will and also should win: Another Round

Could win: Collective

Should've been nominated: La Llorona

The shorts categories are notoriously difficult to predict, however this seems like a 2-horse race between If Anything Happens I Love You and also Burrow. The latter is Disney's entry, and also while that may seem like reason enough to pick it, their track record in this group in terms of wins is actually pretty low. If Anything Happens I Love You is one of the most emotional, as well as with Netflix pushing it hard, it seems likely to be the victor.

Will as well as need to win: If Anything Happens I Love You

Could win: Burrow

Should've been chosen: Out

Part of the New York Times Op-Docs series, A Concerto is a Conversation seems like a classic, timely, as well as heart-tugging victor here. It's a two-hander about Horace Bowers Sr., a 92 year-old Los Angeles entrepeneur who came from the Jim Crow South, as well as his 31-year-old grandson Kris Bowers, the successful composer of Bridgerton as well as Best Picture winner Green Book.

Will as well as need to win: A Concerto is a Conversation

Could win: A Love Song For Latasha

Should've been chosen: Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

If there's a contender in Best Live Action Short with a big movie star in it, that's typically the victor. That was expected to be The Human Voice, directed by Pedro Almodóvar as well as starring Tilda Swinton. However, with that snubbed, this promises to go to The Letter Room, which stars Star Wars as well as Inside Llewyn Davis favored Oscar Isaac.

Will win: The Letter Room

Could in addition to requirement to win: Two Distant Strangers

Should've been picked: The Human Voice

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